Palestinians believe that Fatah is more likely to be a unifying force for the Palestinians than Hamas, according to a new poll published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).

Conducted between 10-12 December 2009, the survey of 1,200 adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip found that the majority of Palestinians do not blame Hamas solely for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, blaming both Fatah and Hamas for the divide.

However, the poll, which looked at a variety of issues affecting the political landscape in the Palestinian territories, did find that Palestinians believe that Fatah are more likely to strengthen unity. Of those surveyed, 48% said they believe a Hamas victory at the next elections would consolidate a separation, while 19% said it would strengthen unity. In comparison, 34% believe a Fatah victory would strengthen unity, while 27% said they think this would consolidate separation.

Of those surveyed, if new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 72% would vote, with 43% voting for Fatah and 27% supporting Hamas. In a presidential election, Fatah’s Mahmoud Abbas would receive 54% of the voters’ support, while Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh would find favour with 38%.

Since August 2009, there has been a minor improvement in the popularity of Abbas, but PSR believes that this could be attributed to his recently announced decision not to run in the next elections, as its findings do not show an increase in satisfaction with his actual performance as president.

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad’s popularity has also improved slightly, with the PSR attributing this to the perception of improved personal and family safety and security among West Bank residents. Regarding government legitimacy, 30% of those polled believe Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one, while 26% believe that this title belongs to Haniyeh’s government.

The poll also notes that while Fatah came under fire from the Palestinians for its reaction to the publication of the Goldstone Report, this negative opinion was offset by Hamas’s refusal to sign the proposed reconciliation agreement, as well as its subsequent decision to prevent the election commission from conducting preparations for elections in the Gaza Strip.

While the popularity of Fatah under Abbas has remained almost stagnant since August 2009, the poll indicates that this would change were Marwan Barghouti to stand. The leading Fatah activist and politician is currently in an Israeli jail for the role he played in terror attacks during the Second Intifada, but could be released under the terms of the negotiations to free kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. According to the survey, were Barghouti to stand against Ismail Haniyeh, he would receive 67% to the Hamas leader’s 28% of the votes.

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These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 10 and 12 December 2009. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.